Investigating the 'Bolsonaro effect' on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil.

Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the 'Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022. To our knowledge, this paper presents the most comprehensive investigation of Bolsonaro's influence in the spread of the pandemic from two angles: considering Covid-19 mortality and two key transmission mitigation channels (social distancing and vaccination); and exploring the full pandemic cycle (2020-2022) and its dynamics over time. Controlling for a rich set of relevant variables, our results find a strong and persistent 'Bolsonaro effect' on the death rate: municipalities that were more pro-Bolsonaro recorded significantly more fatalities. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the president's attitude and decisions negatively influenced the population's behaviour. Firstly, pro-Bolsonaro municipalities presented a lower level of compliance with social distancing measures. Secondly, vaccination was relatively less widespread in places more in favour of the former president. Finally, our analysis points to longer-lasting and damaging repercussions. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that the 'Bolsonaro effect' impacted not only on Covid-19 vaccination, but has affected vaccination campaigns in general thereby jeopardizing the historical success of the National Immunization Program in Brazil.

Towards an inclusive nature conservation initiative: Preliminary assessment of stakeholders' representations about the Makay region, Madagascar.

The existence of multiple perspectives and representations of different stakeholders poses critical challenges to conservation initiatives worldwide. Thus, to foster more just and sustainable agendas in protected areas (PAs), this diversity of perspectives must be better understood, acknowledged, and tackled. In this article, we aimed to initiate this understanding for the Makay region in Madagascar, a poorly-known region where a 'New Protected Area' has been gazetted. In combining mental models and social representation theory, we explored different stakeholders' perspectives about the Makay social-ecological system, and how differences in stakeholders' viewpoints could challenge the success of an inclusive, just, and sustainable conservation program. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 32 respondents having different expertise on the Makay. During interviews, respondents were guided towards the elicitation of their individual cognitive map (ICM) of the Makay social-ecological system. ICMs were then analyzed in combining quantitative and qualitative. Respondents described the Makay through a total of 162 components, including 51 components that constituted the central zone of the Makay's representation. In particular, respondents pointed to insecurity issues caused by zebu thieves, as well as to environmental challenges relative to anthropogenic fires and hunting. On the contrary, they considered mining activities and timber harvesting as more peripheral problems. Through a multivariate clustering analysis, we discriminated two clusters of respondents with contrasting visions about the Makay, ecocentric vs. social-ecological, which was largely influenced by respondents' background. In comparing the two clusters' representations, we found that they had dissimilar diagnoses about key socio-environmental challenges in the Makay and how to address them. This ambiguity in respondents' viewpoints stresses the need to increase research efforts in the Makay region to fill current knowledge gaps about this poorly known social-ecological system, and to foster social learning between stakeholders concerned by the Makay new PA.

Municípios in the Time of Covid-19 in Brazil: Socioeconomic Vulnerabilities, Transmission Factors and Public Policies.

This paper aims at identifying the Covid-19 infection and mortality risk factors in Brazil during the pandemic's first wave. Three groups of variables are considered: socioeconomic and health vulnerabilities, factors related to the virus transmission channels (mobility and density) and the effects of the policy responses. The analysis at the level of all 5,570 municipalities, drawing on a matching of different statistical and administrative databases, returns three main results. First, structurally vulnerable populations are hardest hit-non-white, poor, in poor health, favela residents and informal workers-showing the impact of socioeconomic inequalities. Second, we highlight some policy repercussions. The Auxilio Emergencial (emergency cash transfer) has had a mitigating effect in communities with relatively more informal workers. Finally, Covid-19 has hit hardest in municipalities that are more pro-Bolsonaro. The president's rhetoric and attitudes may have prompted his supporters to adopt more risky behaviour, suffer the consequences and infect others. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1057/s41287-021-00487-w.

Cet article cherche à identifier les facteurs de risque de contracter le COVID-19 et d'en mourir durant la première vague de la pandémie au Brésil. Trois groupes de variables sont considérés : les facteurs socio-économiques et sanitaires, ceux liés aux canaux de transmission du virus (la mobilité et la densité) et les effets des réponses politiques. Réalisée sur l'ensemble des 5 570 municipalités et basée sur l'appariement de différentes bases de données statistiques et administratives, l'analyse fait ressortir trois principaux résultats. En premier lieu, les populations structurellement vulnérables sont les plus touchées ­ non-blancs, pauvres, de santé précaire, habitants des favelas, informels - renforçant l'effet des inégalités socioéconomiques. En deuxième lieu, nous mettons en évidence l'influence des politiques. L'Auxilio emergencial (transfert monétaire d'urgence) a un effet atténuateur dans les localités ayant relativement plus de travailleurs informels. Enfin, le CoVid-19 fait plus de ravages dans les municipalités plus favorables à Bolsonaro. Le discours du président induit ses partisans à adopter plus souvent des comportements à risque et à en subir les conséquences.